Harris vs. Trump · October 10, 2024
Harris Has Significant Lead in Minnesota
ActiVote’s October 11, 2024 Minnesota Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 5.8%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 10, 2024 and October 9, 2024 with a median field date of September 25.
Please note that Minnesota does not register voters by party affiliation. Therefore, our voter file contains a statistically derived estimate of who is Democrat or Republican. The results in our poll suggest that the estimate for Minnesota is not accurate, leading to unrealistic percentages like 63% of Democrats voting for Harris and 55% of Republicans voting for Trump. These elements are therefore best ignored.
Trump leads among rural voters, those aged 30-49, men, Republicans, middle income voters and those with at most a High school education.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light-blue state of Minnesota, there are more left-leaning voters than the national average and fewer right-leaning voters.
Both Harris and Trump get 97% of their core constituents (left and moderate left for Harris, right and moderate right for Trump). Trump has a lead among the centrists, but not enough to offset the fact that there are more left-leaning voters in Minnesota than right-leaning voters.
Comparisons
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Minnesota by 7.1% while in 2016 Clinton beat Trump by 1.5%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 10, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 25% | 3% | 97% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 20% | 4% | 96% | |
| Center | 20% | 20% | 58% | 42% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 18% | 97% | 3% | |
| Right | 17% | 18% | 96% | 4% | |
| Region | rural | 40% | 42% | 63% | 37% |
| suburban | 34% | 33% | 39% | 61% | |
| urban | 26% | 25% | 31% | 69% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 25% | 13% | 44% | 56% |
| 30-49 | 42% | 32% | 52% | 48% | |
| 50-64 | 18% | 25% | 40% | 60% | |
| 65+ | 14% | 30% | 49% | 51% | |
| Gender | F | 36% | 52% | 43% | 57% |
| M | 64% | 48% | 51% | 49% | |
| Party | D | 42% | 32% | 37% | 63% |
| R | 29% | 37% | 55% | 45% | |
| I | 28% | 31% | 48% | 52% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 93% | 91% | 48% | 52% |
| Black | 1% | 2% | 31% | 69% | |
| Latino | 3% | 3% | 0% | 100% | |
| Income | Low | 15% | 14% | 39% | 61% |
| Middle | 39% | 41% | 54% | 46% | |
| High | 46% | 45% | 43% | 57% | |
| Education | HS | 14% | 28% | 77% | 23% |
| Some C | 19% | 26% | 25% | 75% | |
| BSC+ | 67% | 47% | 41% | 59% |