Trump vs. Harris · November 1, 2024
Trump Leads in Michigan
ActiVote’s November 3, 2024 Michigan Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 0.6%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 8, 2024 and November 2, 2024 with a median field date of October 21.
Trump leads among rural and suburban voters, older voters (50+), men, Republicans and Independents, Whites, middle and high income voters, and those with a college education. Harris leads or ties all other categories.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of Michigan, the groups are not exactly the same size as in the overall national electorate.
Harris gets 97% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 98% his: the right and moderate right. Trump has a small lead among the centrists.
Comparisons
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Michigan by 2.8% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 0.2%. In our August 28 poll, Harris had a lead of 0.2%, while in our October 11, 2024 poll, Harris had a lead of 2.4%
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · November 1, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 25% | 22% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 26% | 21% | 4% | 96% | |
| Center | 20% | 14% | 51% | 49% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 14% | 97% | 3% | |
| Right | 15% | 28% | 100% | 0% | |
| Region | rural | 40% | 35% | 55% | 45% |
| suburban | 37% | 37% | 57% | 43% | |
| urban | 22% | 28% | 37% | 63% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 27% | 15% | 41% | 59% |
| 30-49 | 41% | 30% | 48% | 52% | |
| 50-64 | 24% | 25% | 58% | 42% | |
| 65+ | 9% | 30% | 51% | 49% | |
| Gender | F | 38% | 52% | 42% | 58% |
| M | 62% | 48% | 59% | 41% | |
| Party | D | 61% | 55% | 29% | 71% |
| R | 32% | 30% | 79% | 21% | |
| I | 7% | 15% | 70% | 30% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 86% | 79% | 54% | 46% |
| Black | 8% | 11% | 43% | 57% | |
| Latino | 3% | 4% | 27% | 73% | |
| Income | Low | 31% | 24% | 44% | 56% |
| Middle | 35% | 47% | 53% | 47% | |
| High | 35% | 29% | 51% | 49% | |
| Education | HS | 31% | 34% | 48% | 52% |
| Some C | 13% | 25% | 34% | 66% | |
| BSC+ | 57% | 42% | 62% | 38% |