Trump vs. Harris · October 10, 2024
Harris With Small Lead in Michigan
ActiVote’s October 11, 2024 Michigan Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 2.4%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 15, 2024 and October 9, 2024 with a median field date of September 27.
Trump leads among rural and suburban voters, middle-aged voters (30-64), men, Republicans and Independents and high income voters. Harris leads or ties all other categories.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of Michigan, the groups are not exactly the same size as in the overall national electorate.
Harris gets 97% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 96% his: the right and moderate right. Harris has a small lead among the centrists.
Comparisons
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Michigan by 2.8% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 0.2%. In our August 28, 2024 poll, Harris had a lead of 0.2%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 10, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 27% | 22% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 23% | 21% | 4% | 96% | |
| Center | 20% | 14% | 47% | 53% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 14% | 96% | 4% | |
| Right | 17% | 28% | 96% | 4% | |
| Region | rural | 39% | 35% | 52% | 48% |
| suburban | 35% | 37% | 62% | 38% | |
| urban | 26% | 28% | 27% | 73% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 27% | 15% | 48% | 52% |
| 30-49 | 40% | 30% | 52% | 48% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 25% | 56% | 44% | |
| 65+ | 10% | 30% | 40% | 60% | |
| Gender | F | 34% | 52% | 39% | 61% |
| M | 66% | 48% | 60% | 40% | |
| Party | D | 60% | 55% | 29% | 71% |
| R | 33% | 30% | 75% | 25% | |
| I | 7% | 15% | 67% | 33% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 88% | 79% | 50% | 50% |
| Black | 7% | 11% | 37% | 63% | |
| Latino | 2% | 4% | 42% | 58% | |
| Income | Low | 26% | 24% | 40% | 60% |
| Middle | 37% | 47% | 49% | 51% | |
| High | 36% | 29% | 56% | 44% | |
| Education | HS | 21% | 34% | 50% | 50% |
| Some C | 18% | 25% | 49% | 51% | |
| BSC+ | 60% | 42% | 48% | 52% |