Michigan · President · 2024
Trump vs. Harris
50.3%
Donald Trump (R)
49.7%
Kamala Harris (D)
R+0.6%
Final poll · published November 1, 2024 · 400 likely voters · MoE ±4.9%
Election result
R+1.4% Donald Trump won
Our final poll (R+0.6%) · error:
D+0.8%
How the race moved (3 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · November 1, 2024
Left
98%
Moderate Left
96%
Center
51%
49%
Moderate Right
97%
Right
100%
Donald TrumpKamala Harris
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 25% | 22% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 26% | 21% | 4% | 96% | |
| Center | 20% | 14% | 51% | 49% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 14% | 97% | 3% | |
| Right | 15% | 28% | 100% | 0% | |
| Region | rural | 40% | 35% | 55% | 45% |
| suburban | 37% | 37% | 57% | 43% | |
| urban | 22% | 28% | 37% | 63% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 27% | 15% | 41% | 59% |
| 30-49 | 41% | 30% | 48% | 52% | |
| 50-64 | 24% | 25% | 58% | 42% | |
| 65+ | 9% | 30% | 51% | 49% | |
| Gender | F | 38% | 52% | 42% | 58% |
| M | 62% | 48% | 59% | 41% | |
| Party | D | 61% | 55% | 29% | 71% |
| R | 32% | 30% | 79% | 21% | |
| I | 7% | 15% | 70% | 30% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 86% | 79% | 54% | 46% |
| Black | 8% | 11% | 43% | 57% | |
| Latino | 3% | 4% | 27% | 73% | |
| Income | Low | 31% | 24% | 44% | 56% |
| Middle | 35% | 47% | 53% | 47% | |
| High | 35% | 29% | 51% | 49% | |
| Education | HS | 31% | 34% | 48% | 52% |
| Some C | 13% | 25% | 34% | 66% | |
| BSC+ | 57% | 42% | 62% | 38% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Trump | Harris | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 1, 2024 | 50.3% | 49.7% | R+0.6% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+1.4% | D+0.8% |
| October 10, 2024 | 48.8% | 51.2% | D+2.4% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+1.4% | D+3.8% |
| August 28, 2024 | 49.9% | 50.1% | D+0.2% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+1.4% | D+1.6% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 400 likely voters in Michigan.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±4.9%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.