Harris vs. Trump · October 15, 2024
Harris Has Large Lead in Maryland
ActiVote’s October 15, 2024 Maryland Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 25.8%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 8, 2024 and October 14, 2024 with a median field date of September 26.
Trump leads among rural voters, young voters (18-29) and Republicans. Harris leads among all other groups. Please note that the category of young voters is only a small subsample (7%) of the overall sample which can explain this surprising finding and is therefore likely an outlier.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the blue state of Maryland, there are far more left-leaning voters than the national average and far fewer right-leaning voters.
Harris takes almost all (97%) of her core constituency (the left and moderate left), while Trump takes 92% of his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Harris has a 10% lead among centrists. The large Harris lead is mostly the result of having many more left-leaning voters than right-leaning voters in blue Maryland.
Comparisons
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Maryland by 33.2% while in 2016 Clinton beat Trump by 26.4%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 15, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 30% | 28% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 24% | 5% | 95% | |
| Center | 19% | 19% | 45% | 55% | |
| Moderate Right | 10% | 16% | 92% | 8% | |
| Right | 13% | 13% | 93% | 7% | |
| Region | rural | 13% | 16% | 63% | 37% |
| suburban | 50% | 44% | 40% | 60% | |
| urban | 37% | 40% | 23% | 77% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 8% | 7% | 52% | 48% |
| 30-49 | 52% | 31% | 43% | 57% | |
| 50-64 | 28% | 30% | 45% | 55% | |
| 65+ | 12% | 32% | 21% | 79% | |
| Gender | F | 40% | 55% | 30% | 70% |
| M | 60% | 45% | 46% | 54% | |
| Party | D | 56% | 55% | 16% | 84% |
| R | 24% | 26% | 77% | 23% | |
| I | 19% | 18% | 46% | 54% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 74% | 56% | 49% | 51% |
| Black | 19% | 30% | 16% | 84% | |
| Latino | 4% | 6% | 19% | 81% | |
| Income | Low | 9% | 12% | 37% | 63% |
| Middle | 21% | 31% | 44% | 56% | |
| High | 70% | 57% | 33% | 67% | |
| Education | HS | 17% | 27% | 35% | 65% |
| Some C | 11% | 20% | 45% | 55% | |
| BSC+ | 71% | 53% | 35% | 65% |