Warren vs. Deaton · October 31, 2024
Warren Has Comfortable Lead in Massachusetts
ActiVote’s October 31, 2024 Massachusetts U.S. Senate poll shows that the Democratic incumbent Elizabeth Warren leads her Republican challenger John Deaton by 26.2%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 2, 2024 and October 30, 2024 with a median field date of October 16.
Deaton leads among Republicans. Warren ties or leads among all other categories.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Warren and Deaton among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the deep blue state of Massachusetts, there are far more left-leaning voters than the national average and far fewer right-leaning voters.
Warren has support from the left and moderate left completely locked up: 94% support him. Deaton has more dissenters (15%) on the right. Centrists clearly favor Warren.
Comparisons
In the 2020 Massachusetts Senate election, Democratic incumbent Ed Markey beat his Republican challenger Kevin O’Connor by 33.1%. In 2018 incumbent Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren beat her Republican challenger Geoff Diehl by 24.2%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 31, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Elizabeth Warren | John Deaton |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 34% | 25% | 97% | 3% |
| Moderate Left | 29% | 23% | 91% | 9% | |
| Center | 17% | 21% | 60% | 40% | |
| Moderate Right | 11% | 18% | 22% | 78% | |
| Right | 8% | 13% | 8% | 92% | |
| Region | rural | 12% | 11% | 50% | 50% |
| suburban | 44% | 52% | 54% | 46% | |
| urban | 44% | 36% | 81% | 19% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 27% | 15% | 54% | 46% |
| 30-49 | 36% | 29% | 63% | 37% | |
| 50-64 | 25% | 26% | 59% | 41% | |
| 65+ | 13% | 30% | 72% | 28% | |
| Gender | F | 35% | 54% | 73% | 27% |
| M | 65% | 46% | 52% | 48% | |
| Party | D | 41% | 28% | 95% | 5% |
| R | 10% | 9% | 17% | 83% | |
| I | 47% | 62% | 55% | 45% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 82% | 76% | 62% | 38% |
| Black | 4% | 4% | 84% | 16% | |
| Latino | 7% | 12% | 53% | 47% | |
| Income | Low | 15% | 13% | 59% | 41% |
| Middle | 31% | 29% | 73% | 27% | |
| High | 54% | 57% | 59% | 41% | |
| Education | HS | 28% | 27% | 57% | 43% |
| Some C | 7% | 18% | 77% | 23% | |
| BSC+ | 65% | 56% | 62% | 38% |