Trump vs. Harris · October 29, 2024
Trump Leads Comfortably in Indiana
ActiVote’s Oct 29, 2024 Indiana Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 15.4%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 3, 2024 and October 28, 2024 with a median field date of October 16.
Please note that in each of these polls the threshold for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Latino voters (5%) was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.
Harris leads among the Democrats and Blacks. Trump leads or ties all other categories.
Please note that Indiana does not register by party affiliation so that the inferred party affiliation from the voter file may be less accurate than in some other states, possibly explaining why Harris and Trump lose about 20% of “Democrats” and “Republicans”.
Please also note that the result for urban voters seems unexpected. As only 14% of the state of Indiana is deemed “urban” (based on zip code density), the sample of urban voters has a high Margin-of-Error, making that this finding could be an outlier.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Indiana, there are fewer left-leaning voters than the national average and more right-leaning voters.
Harris gets 99% of her core constituency (the left and moderate left), while Trump gets 96% of his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Trump also has a large lead among the centrists (+28%). Trump’s lead is further amplified by having more right-leaning voters than left-leaning voters in red Indiana.
Comparisons
In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Indiana by 16.1% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 19.2%. In our previous poll of October 1, 2024, Trump led by 14.0%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 29, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 25% | 19% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 27% | 15% | 2% | 98% | |
| Center | 19% | 15% | 64% | 36% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 18% | 95% | 5% | |
| Right | 15% | 33% | 97% | 3% | |
| Region | rural | 39% | 44% | 66% | 34% |
| suburban | 47% | 43% | 50% | 50% | |
| urban | 14% | 13% | 56% | 44% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 24% | 12% | 50% | 50% |
| 30-49 | 41% | 29% | 55% | 45% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 26% | 64% | 36% | |
| 65+ | 12% | 33% | 58% | 42% | |
| Gender | F | 38% | 53% | 50% | 50% |
| M | 62% | 47% | 67% | 33% | |
| Party | D | 35% | 31% | 21% | 79% |
| R | 35% | 40% | 80% | 20% | |
| I | 29% | 29% | 66% | 34% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 89% | 86% | 63% | 37% |
| Black | 5% | 7% | 17% | 83% | |
| Latino | 4% | 4% | 45% | 55% | |
| Income | Low | 22% | 23% | 66% | 34% |
| Middle | 42% | 48% | 56% | 44% | |
| High | 36% | 29% | 55% | 45% | |
| Education | HS | 33% | 36% | 63% | 37% |
| Some C | 8% | 22% | 61% | 39% | |
| BSC+ | 59% | 42% | 52% | 48% |