Harris vs. Trump · October 6, 2024
Harris Extends Lead in Illinois
ActiVote’s October 6, 2024 Illinois Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 17.6%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 3, 2024 and October 5, 2024 with a median field date of September 19.
Please note that in this poll the threshold of 5% for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Black voters was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.
Harris leads or ties among all categories of voters, except suburban voters, those aged 50-64, Republicans, and those with at most a High school education.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the blue state of Illinois, there are more left-leaning voters than the national average and fewer right-leaning voters.
Harris gets 99% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 93% of his: the right and moderate right. Trump has a lead among the centrists, but not enough to offset the fact that there are far more left-leaning voters in Illinois than right-leaning voters.
Comparisons
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Illinois by 17.0% while in 2016 Clinton beat Trump by 17.1%. In our August 29 poll, Harris had a lead of 15.6%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 6, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 27% | 26% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 29% | 23% | 2% | 98% | |
| Center | 20% | 17% | 55% | 45% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 15% | 92% | 8% | |
| Right | 12% | 18% | 95% | 5% | |
| Region | rural | 23% | 23% | 50% | 50% |
| suburban | 33% | 29% | 52% | 48% | |
| urban | 44% | 48% | 31% | 69% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 30% | 13% | 30% | 70% |
| 30-49 | 39% | 31% | 33% | 67% | |
| 50-64 | 18% | 26% | 57% | 43% | |
| 65+ | 14% | 30% | 41% | 59% | |
| Gender | F | 31% | 54% | 39% | 61% |
| M | 69% | 46% | 44% | 56% | |
| Party | D | 61% | 44% | 12% | 88% |
| R | 21% | 25% | 90% | 10% | |
| I | 18% | 31% | 43% | 57% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 79% | 69% | 43% | 57% |
| Black | 3% | 12% | 44% | 56% | |
| Latino | 10% | 12% | 36% | 64% | |
| Income | Low | 17% | 19% | 33% | 67% |
| Middle | 36% | 40% | 45% | 55% | |
| High | 47% | 41% | 41% | 59% | |
| Education | HS | 11% | 31% | 52% | 48% |
| Some C | 13% | 22% | 29% | 71% | |
| BSC+ | 76% | 48% | 40% | 60% |