Harris vs. Trump · August 29, 2024
Harris Leads by Double Digits in Illinois
ActiVote’s Aug 29, 2024 Illinois Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 15.6%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 6, 2024 and August 29, 2024 with a median field date of August 18.
Harris leads among all categories of voters, except rural voters, those aged 50-64, men and Republicans. Blacks are omitted from the table as our unweighted sample for them was too small, but are part of the overall sample.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the blue state of Illinois, there are more left-leaning voters than the national average and fewer right-leaning voters.
Harris gets 94% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 87% his: the right and moderate right. Trump has a lead among the centrists, but not enough to offset the fact that there are far more left-leaning voters in Illinois than right-leaning voters.
Comparisons
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Illinois by 17.0% while in 2016 Clinton beat Trump by 17.1%. Thus, a Harris lead of 15.6% is slightly worse for the Democratic candidate than those previous elections.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · August 29, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 31% | 26% | 5% | 95% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 23% | 7% | 93% | |
| Center | 17% | 17% | 59% | 41% | |
| Moderate Right | 10% | 15% | 83% | 17% | |
| Right | 12% | 18% | 92% | 8% | |
| Region | rural | 31% | 23% | 53% | 47% |
| suburban | 31% | 29% | 34% | 66% | |
| urban | 38% | 48% | 43% | 57% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 31% | 13% | 41% | 59% |
| 30-49 | 38% | 31% | 42% | 58% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 26% | 54% | 46% | |
| 65+ | 8% | 30% | 33% | 67% | |
| Gender | F | 34% | 54% | 32% | 68% |
| M | 66% | 46% | 54% | 46% | |
| Party | D | 54% | 44% | 19% | 81% |
| R | 21% | 25% | 82% | 18% | |
| I | 25% | 31% | 43% | 57% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 77% | 69% | 46% | 54% |
| Black | 6% | 12% | 42% | 58% | |
| Latino | 9% | 12% | 29% | 71% | |
| Income | Low | 18% | 19% | 31% | 69% |
| Middle | 42% | 40% | 47% | 53% | |
| High | 40% | 41% | 43% | 57% | |
| Education | HS | 22% | 31% | 39% | 61% |
| Some C | 15% | 22% | 38% | 62% | |
| BSC+ | 63% | 48% | 46% | 54% |