Trump vs. Harris · October 18, 2024
Trump Narrowly Ahead in Georgia
ActiVote’s October 18, 2024 Georgia Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 1.4%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 1, 2024 and October 17, 2024 with a median field date of October 9.
Please note that in this poll the threshold for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Latino voters (5%) was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.
Please note that Georgia does not register voters by party affiliation. Therefore, our voter file contains a statistically derived estimate of who is Democrat or Republican, leading to lower percentages of Democrats and Republicans seeming to vote for the candidate of their party.
Trump leads among rural voters, all age groups except for those aged 30-49, men, Republicans, Independents, Whites, those with high incomes and those with at least some college.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of Georgia, the distribution over these categories is not exactly equal to the national average.
Harris gets 99% of her core constituency (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 89% of his core constituency (right and moderate right). Trump has a 24% lead among centrists.
Comparisons
In our September 10, 2024 poll, Trump led by 0.4%. In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Georgia by 0.2% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 5.1%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 18, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 20% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 18% | 2% | 98% | |
| Center | 21% | 18% | 62% | 38% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 21% | 89% | 11% | |
| Right | 14% | 23% | 88% | 12% | |
| Region | rural | 35% | 36% | 63% | 37% |
| suburban | 49% | 48% | 48% | 52% | |
| urban | 16% | 16% | 32% | 68% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 25% | 15% | 53% | 47% |
| 30-49 | 39% | 32% | 37% | 63% | |
| 50-64 | 22% | 26% | 56% | 44% | |
| 65+ | 15% | 27% | 60% | 40% | |
| Gender | F | 43% | 55% | 45% | 55% |
| M | 57% | 45% | 57% | 43% | |
| Party | D | 55% | 44% | 18% | 82% |
| R | 26% | 36% | 86% | 14% | |
| I | 19% | 20% | 56% | 44% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 56% | 55% | 68% | 32% |
| Black | 34% | 35% | 24% | 76% | |
| Latino | 5% | 6% | 50% | 50% | |
| Income | Low | 20% | 22% | 50% | 50% |
| Middle | 38% | 45% | 47% | 53% | |
| High | 43% | 33% | 56% | 44% | |
| Education | HS | 25% | 33% | 42% | 58% |
| Some C | 14% | 24% | 56% | 44% | |
| BSC+ | 61% | 43% | 55% | 45% |