Scott vs. Mucarsel-Powell · October 21, 2024
Scott has small lead in Florida
ActiVote’s October 21, 2024 Florida U.S. Senate poll shows that the Republican incumbent Senator Rick Scott leads his Democratic challenger, former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 3.8%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 23, 2024 and October 20, 2024 with a median field date of October 7.
Mucarsel-Powell leads among urban voters, younger voters (18-49), women, Democrats, Black and Latino voters, those with low incomes and those with some college. Scott leads among all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Scott and Mucarsel-Powell among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light red state of Florida, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Both candidates dominate among their core constituencies: 96% of left-leaning voters support Mucarsel-Powell and 89% of right-leaning voters support Scott. Centrists favor Mucarsel-Powell.
Comparisons
In our September 22 poll, Scott led by 7.8%. In the 2022 Florida Senate election, Republican incumbent Marco Rubio beat his Democratic challenger Val Demings by 16.4%. In 2018 Scott beat then-incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson by 0.1%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 21, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Rick Scott | Debbie MucarselPowell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 18% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 29% | 18% | 8% | 92% | |
| Center | 17% | 14% | 42% | 58% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 23% | 89% | 11% | |
| Right | 17% | 27% | 90% | 10% | |
| Region | rural | 20% | 19% | 66% | 34% |
| suburban | 48% | 47% | 56% | 44% | |
| urban | 32% | 34% | 37% | 63% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 20% | 13% | 49% | 51% |
| 30-49 | 34% | 27% | 45% | 55% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 26% | 58% | 42% | |
| 65+ | 22% | 34% | 54% | 46% | |
| Gender | F | 35% | 54% | 49% | 51% |
| M | 65% | 46% | 56% | 44% | |
| Party | D | 50% | 34% | 6% | 94% |
| R | 26% | 40% | 91% | 9% | |
| I | 22% | 26% | 52% | 48% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 70% | 58% | 64% | 36% |
| Black | 11% | 15% | 15% | 85% | |
| Latino | 17% | 23% | 49% | 51% | |
| Income | Low | 22% | 21% | 45% | 55% |
| Middle | 37% | 46% | 52% | 48% | |
| High | 40% | 33% | 56% | 44% | |
| Education | HS | 29% | 33% | 57% | 43% |
| Some C | 13% | 24% | 38% | 62% | |
| BSC+ | 58% | 44% | 56% | 44% |