Scott vs. Mucarsel-Powell · September 22, 2024
Scott Ahead of Mucarsel-Powell in Florida
ActiVote’s September 22, 2024 Florida U.S. Senate poll shows that the Republican incumbent Senator Rick Scott leads his Democratic challenger, former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 7.8%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 21, 2024 and September 22, 2024 with a median field date of September 6.
Mucarsel-Powell leads among urban voters, Democrats and Black and Latino voters. She ties Scott among younger voters (ages 18-49) and among women. Scott leads among all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Scott and Mucarsel-Powell among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light red state of Florida, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Both candidates dominate among their core constituencies: 94% of left-leaning voters support Mucarsel-Powell and 94% of right-leaning voters support Scott. The voters in the center are ⅔ to ⅓ leaning towards Mucarsel-Powell.
Comparisons
In the 2022 Florida Senate election, Republican incumbent Marco Rubio beat his Democratic challenger Val Demings by 16.4%. In 2018 Scott beat then-incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson by 0.1%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · September 22, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Rick Scott | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 25% | 18% | 3% | 97% |
| Moderate Left | 27% | 18% | 9% | 91% | |
| Center | 16% | 14% | 35% | 65% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 23% | 92% | 8% | |
| Right | 19% | 27% | 95% | 5% | |
| Region | rural | 24% | 19% | 66% | 34% |
| suburban | 43% | 47% | 63% | 37% | |
| urban | 33% | 34% | 35% | 65% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 18% | 13% | 50% | 50% |
| 30-49 | 34% | 27% | 50% | 50% | |
| 50-64 | 29% | 26% | 64% | 36% | |
| 65+ | 19% | 34% | 51% | 49% | |
| Gender | F | 32% | 54% | 50% | 50% |
| M | 68% | 46% | 59% | 41% | |
| Party | D | 49% | 34% | 6% | 94% |
| R | 30% | 40% | 96% | 4% | |
| I | 18% | 26% | 52% | 48% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 71% | 58% | 70% | 30% |
| Black | 10% | 15% | 20% | 80% | |
| Latino | 17% | 23% | 32% | 68% | |
| Income | Low | 19% | 21% | 58% | 42% |
| Middle | 37% | 46% | 51% | 49% | |
| High | 44% | 33% | 56% | 44% | |
| Education | HS | 20% | 33% | 54% | 46% |
| Some C | 15% | 24% | 55% | 45% | |
| BSC+ | 65% | 44% | 53% | 47% |