Trump vs. Harris · October 28, 2024
Trump extends lead in Florida
ActiVote’s October 28, 2024 Florida Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 11.6%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 11, 2024 and October 27, 2024 with a median field date of October 19.
Harris leads among urban voters, Democrats and Black voters. Trump leads or ties all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light-red state of Florida, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Harris gets 97% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 93% of his: the right and moderate right. They are tied among centrists.
Comparisons
In our poll of October 21, Trump led by 9.2%. In our poll of October 7, Trump led by 6.0%. In our poll of August 31, 2024, Trump led by 6.8%. In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Florida by 3.4% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 1.2%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 28, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 23% | 18% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 31% | 18% | 6% | 94% | |
| Center | 19% | 14% | 50% | 50% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 23% | 91% | 9% | |
| Right | 14% | 27% | 97% | 3% | |
| Region | rural | 21% | 19% | 68% | 32% |
| suburban | 47% | 47% | 58% | 42% | |
| urban | 32% | 34% | 45% | 55% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 21% | 13% | 50% | 50% |
| 30-49 | 35% | 27% | 52% | 48% | |
| 50-64 | 25% | 26% | 62% | 38% | |
| 65+ | 19% | 34% | 57% | 43% | |
| Gender | F | 37% | 54% | 51% | 49% |
| M | 63% | 46% | 61% | 39% | |
| Party | D | 45% | 34% | 12% | 88% |
| R | 30% | 40% | 94% | 6% | |
| I | 23% | 26% | 53% | 47% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 68% | 58% | 68% | 32% |
| Black | 11% | 15% | 12% | 88% | |
| Latino | 19% | 23% | 55% | 45% | |
| Income | Low | 24% | 21% | 53% | 47% |
| Middle | 38% | 46% | 53% | 47% | |
| High | 38% | 33% | 62% | 38% | |
| Education | HS | 26% | 33% | 52% | 48% |
| Some C | 13% | 24% | 55% | 45% | |
| BSC+ | 62% | 44% | 59% | 41% |