Trump vs. Harris · October 21, 2024
Trump extends lead in Florida
ActiVote’s October 21, 2024 Florida Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 9.2%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 7, 2024 and October 20, 2024 with a median field date of October 14.
Harris leads among urban voters, the younger voters (30-49), women, Democrats, and Black and Latino voters. Trump leads or ties all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light-red state of Florida, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Harris gets 95% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 89% of his: the right and moderate right. Trump has a significant lead among centrists.
Comparisons
In our previous poll of October 7, Trump led by 6.0%. In our poll of August 31, 2024, Trump led by 6.8%. In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Florida by 3.4% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 1.2%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 21, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 17% | 18% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 27% | 18% | 9% | 91% | |
| Center | 22% | 14% | 57% | 43% | |
| Moderate Right | 16% | 23% | 84% | 16% | |
| Right | 17% | 27% | 93% | 7% | |
| Region | rural | 21% | 19% | 68% | 32% |
| suburban | 47% | 47% | 55% | 45% | |
| urban | 32% | 34% | 46% | 54% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 16% | 13% | 58% | 42% |
| 30-49 | 37% | 27% | 47% | 53% | |
| 50-64 | 24% | 26% | 60% | 40% | |
| 65+ | 23% | 34% | 56% | 44% | |
| Gender | F | 35% | 54% | 48% | 52% |
| M | 65% | 46% | 62% | 38% | |
| Party | D | 42% | 34% | 7% | 93% |
| R | 31% | 40% | 92% | 8% | |
| I | 26% | 26% | 59% | 41% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 67% | 58% | 68% | 32% |
| Black | 11% | 15% | 28% | 72% | |
| Latino | 20% | 23% | 48% | 52% | |
| Income | Low | 27% | 21% | 41% | 59% |
| Middle | 39% | 46% | 60% | 40% | |
| High | 34% | 33% | 56% | 44% | |
| Education | HS | 30% | 33% | 50% | 50% |
| Some C | 9% | 24% | 51% | 49% | |
| BSC+ | 61% | 44% | 60% | 40% |