Trump vs. Harris · October 7, 2024
Trump has steady lead in Florida
ActiVote’s October 7, 2024 Florida presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 6.0%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 17, 2024 and October 6, 2024 with a median field date of September 27.
Harris leads among urban voters, the youngest voters (18-29), Democrats, Independents, Black and Latino voters and those with some college. Trump leads or ties all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light-red state of Florida, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Harris gets 95% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 91% of his: the right and moderate right. Harris has a large lead among centrists, but not enough to compensate for the much larger group of right-leaning voters than left-leaning voters in Florida.
Comparisons
In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Florida by 3.4% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 1.2%. In our previous poll of August 31, 2024, Trump led by 6.8%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 7, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 20% | 18% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 28% | 18% | 7% | 93% | |
| Center | 21% | 14% | 37% | 63% | |
| Moderate Right | 14% | 23% | 90% | 10% | |
| Right | 16% | 27% | 92% | 8% | |
| Region | rural | 21% | 19% | 63% | 37% |
| suburban | 46% | 47% | 57% | 43% | |
| urban | 33% | 34% | 42% | 58% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 21% | 13% | 41% | 59% |
| 30-49 | 33% | 27% | 51% | 49% | |
| 50-64 | 25% | 26% | 56% | 44% | |
| 65+ | 21% | 34% | 56% | 44% | |
| Gender | F | 36% | 54% | 50% | 50% |
| M | 64% | 46% | 57% | 43% | |
| Party | D | 46% | 34% | 11% | 89% |
| R | 31% | 40% | 93% | 7% | |
| I | 21% | 26% | 45% | 55% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 68% | 58% | 62% | 38% |
| Black | 12% | 15% | 28% | 72% | |
| Latino | 17% | 23% | 47% | 53% | |
| Income | Low | 18% | 21% | 53% | 47% |
| Middle | 38% | 46% | 50% | 50% | |
| High | 44% | 33% | 57% | 43% | |
| Education | HS | 20% | 33% | 55% | 45% |
| Some C | 15% | 24% | 42% | 58% | |
| BSC+ | 65% | 44% | 58% | 42% |