Trump vs. Harris · August 31, 2024
Trump has a solid lead in Florida
ActiVote’s Aug 31, 2024 Florida Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 6.8%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 16, 2024 and August 31, 2024 with a median field date of August 23.
Trump leads among rural and suburban voters, while Harris leads among urban voters. Harris leads among voters under 50, while Trump leads among those 50 and over. Trump leads among men and narrowly among women. Both take over 90% of their party’s voters, while Trump narrowly leads among Independents.
Trump leads among Whites and Latinos while Harris takes almost all Black votes. Harris leads the middle income voters, while Trump wins among the lowest and highest income earners. Trump leads among those with some college and a college degree, while Harris narrowly leads among those with High School or less.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light-red state of Florida, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Harris gets 95% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 90% of his: the right and moderate right. Harris leads among centrists.
Comparisons
Our August 15 poll had Trump +8.2%. In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Florida by 3.4% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 1.2%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · August 31, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 28% | 18% | 3% | 97% |
| Moderate Left | 26% | 18% | 8% | 92% | |
| Center | 16% | 14% | 41% | 59% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 23% | 84% | 16% | |
| Right | 19% | 27% | 96% | 4% | |
| Region | rural | 23% | 19% | 59% | 41% |
| suburban | 42% | 47% | 60% | 40% | |
| urban | 35% | 34% | 41% | 59% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 21% | 13% | 43% | 57% |
| 30-49 | 37% | 27% | 46% | 54% | |
| 50-64 | 25% | 26% | 61% | 39% | |
| 65+ | 16% | 34% | 58% | 42% | |
| Gender | F | 43% | 54% | 51% | 49% |
| M | 57% | 46% | 56% | 44% | |
| Party | D | 52% | 34% | 7% | 93% |
| R | 28% | 40% | 94% | 6% | |
| I | 19% | 26% | 52% | 48% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 70% | 58% | 66% | 34% |
| Black | 14% | 15% | 4% | 96% | |
| Latino | 13% | 23% | 56% | 44% | |
| Income | Low | 21% | 21% | 53% | 47% |
| Middle | 39% | 46% | 46% | 54% | |
| High | 40% | 33% | 64% | 36% | |
| Education | HS | 20% | 33% | 49% | 51% |
| Some C | 19% | 24% | 56% | 44% | |
| BSC+ | 60% | 44% | 55% | 45% |