Trump vs. Harris · August 15, 2024
Trump Leads Harris in Florida
ActiVote’s Aug 15, 2024 Florida Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 8.2%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 5, 2024 and August 15, 2024 with a median field date of August 10.
Trump leads among rural and suburban voters, while Harris leads among urban voters. Trump leads all age categories, except for the 50-64 olds. Trump leads among men, while they tie among women. Both candidates lead handily among their party, while they are essentially tied among independents. Trump leads among Whites, while Harris leads among Blacks, with the race about equal among Latinos. Trump leads (or ties) in all education and income categories.
Please note that the result for the 50-64 year olds, seems quite the outlier, which can possibly be attributed to random sampling variations in the somewhat small group of participants in this category.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Trump and Harris among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the (in recent years) red state of Florida, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.
Both candidates dominate among their core constituencies (the left and moderate left for Harris, and the right and moderate right for Trump), each taking 93% of the vote. Harris has a small edge among the centrist. The large Trump lead is due to the fact that there are simply more right-leaning than left-leaning voters in Florida.
Comparisons
In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Florida by 3.4% while in 2016 he beat Clinton by 1.2%. Thus, Trump currently polls much better in his adopted home state of Florida than in previous years.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · August 15, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 26% | 15% | 2% | 98% |
| Moderate Left | 26% | 20% | 12% | 88% | |
| Center | 17% | 20% | 47% | 53% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 21% | 90% | 10% | |
| Right | 19% | 24% | 96% | 4% | |
| Region | rural | 18% | 19% | 64% | 36% |
| suburban | 51% | 47% | 58% | 42% | |
| urban | 31% | 34% | 43% | 57% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 19% | 13% | 52% | 48% |
| 30-49 | 38% | 27% | 56% | 44% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 26% | 37% | 63% | |
| 65+ | 20% | 34% | 65% | 35% | |
| Gender | F | 40% | 54% | 50% | 50% |
| M | 60% | 46% | 58% | 42% | |
| Party | D | 52% | 34% | 8% | 92% |
| R | 30% | 40% | 96% | 4% | |
| I | 16% | 26% | 49% | 51% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 68% | 58% | 65% | 35% |
| Black | 13% | 15% | 15% | 85% | |
| Latino | 15% | 23% | 52% | 48% | |
| Income | Low | 19% | 21% | 58% | 42% |
| Middle | 40% | 46% | 51% | 49% | |
| High | 41% | 33% | 56% | 44% | |
| Education | HS | 26% | 33% | 60% | 40% |
| Some C | 14% | 24% | 50% | 50% | |
| BSC+ | 59% | 44% | 51% | 49% |