Florida · President · 2024
Trump vs. Harris
55.8%
Donald Trump (R)
44.2%
Kamala Harris (D)
R+11.6%
Final poll · published October 28, 2024 · 400 likely voters · MoE ±4.9%
Election result
R+13.1% Donald Trump won
Our final poll (R+11.6%) · error:
D+1.5%
How the race moved (5 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · October 28, 2024
Left
100%
Moderate Left
94%
Center
50%
50%
Moderate Right
91%
9%
Right
97%
Donald TrumpKamala Harris
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 23% | 18% | 0% | 100% |
| Moderate Left | 31% | 18% | 6% | 94% | |
| Center | 19% | 14% | 50% | 50% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 23% | 91% | 9% | |
| Right | 14% | 27% | 97% | 3% | |
| Region | rural | 21% | 19% | 68% | 32% |
| suburban | 47% | 47% | 58% | 42% | |
| urban | 32% | 34% | 45% | 55% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 21% | 13% | 50% | 50% |
| 30-49 | 35% | 27% | 52% | 48% | |
| 50-64 | 25% | 26% | 62% | 38% | |
| 65+ | 19% | 34% | 57% | 43% | |
| Gender | F | 37% | 54% | 51% | 49% |
| M | 63% | 46% | 61% | 39% | |
| Party | D | 45% | 34% | 12% | 88% |
| R | 30% | 40% | 94% | 6% | |
| I | 23% | 26% | 53% | 47% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 68% | 58% | 68% | 32% |
| Black | 11% | 15% | 12% | 88% | |
| Latino | 19% | 23% | 55% | 45% | |
| Income | Low | 24% | 21% | 53% | 47% |
| Middle | 38% | 46% | 53% | 47% | |
| High | 38% | 33% | 62% | 38% | |
| Education | HS | 26% | 33% | 52% | 48% |
| Some C | 13% | 24% | 55% | 45% | |
| BSC+ | 62% | 44% | 59% | 41% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Trump | Harris | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28, 2024 | 55.8% | 44.2% | R+11.6% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+13.1% | D+1.5% |
| October 21, 2024 | 54.6% | 45.4% | R+9.2% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+13.1% | D+3.9% |
| October 7, 2024 | 53.0% | 47.0% | R+6.0% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+13.1% | D+7.1% |
| August 31, 2024 | 53.4% | 46.6% | R+6.8% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+13.1% | D+6.3% |
| August 15, 2024 | 54.1% | 45.9% | R+8.2% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+13.1% | D+4.9% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 400 likely voters in Florida.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±4.9%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.