Schiff vs. Garvey · October 28, 2024
Schiff Stays Ahead of Garvey in California
ActiVote’s October 28, 2024 California U.S. Senate poll shows that the Democratic candidate Representative Adam Schiff leads his Republican opponent Steve Garvey by 22.4%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 6, 2024 and October 27, 2024 with a median field date of October 17.
Garvey leads among Republicans. Schiff leads in all other categories.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Schiff and Garvey among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the very blue state of California, there are many more left-leaning voters than the national average and far fewer right-leaning voters.
Schiff dominates among left leaning voters (96%) while Garvey gets 93% of his core constituency on the right. The voters in the center lean towards Schiff. More importantly: far more people in California lean left than right.
Comparisons
In our third poll (October 19, 2024) Schiff led by 26.8%. In our second poll (September 21, 2024) Schiff led by 25.4%. In our first poll (August 12, 2024), Schiff led by 32.6%. In the 2022 California Senate election, Democratic candidate Alex Padillo beat his Republican opponent Mark Meuser by 22.2%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 28, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Adam Schiff | Steve Garvey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 28% | 33% | 98% | 2% |
| Moderate Left | 31% | 20% | 95% | 5% | |
| Center | 17% | 15% | 51% | 49% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 14% | 8% | 92% | |
| Right | 12% | 18% | 7% | 93% | |
| Region | rural | 16% | 13% | 58% | 42% |
| suburban | 24% | 27% | 54% | 46% | |
| urban | 60% | 60% | 65% | 35% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 17% | 17% | 74% | 26% |
| 30-49 | 42% | 31% | 66% | 34% | |
| 50-64 | 27% | 24% | 59% | 41% | |
| 65+ | 14% | 28% | 51% | 49% | |
| Gender | F | 36% | 53% | 66% | 34% |
| M | 64% | 47% | 56% | 44% | |
| Party | D | 57% | 48% | 92% | 8% |
| R | 23% | 26% | 4% | 96% | |
| I | 13% | 19% | 64% | 36% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 68% | 49% | 58% | 42% |
| Asian | 5% | 11% | 59% | 41% | |
| Latino | 19% | 32% | 63% | 37% | |
| Income | Low | 12% | 15% | 67% | 33% |
| Middle | 32% | 33% | 58% | 42% | |
| High | 56% | 52% | 62% | 38% | |
| Education | HS | 19% | 28% | 60% | 40% |
| Some C | 12% | 24% | 60% | 40% | |
| BSC+ | 69% | 48% | 63% | 37% |