Schiff vs. Garvey · October 19, 2024
Schiff Again Far Ahead of Garvey in California
ActiVote’s October 19, 2024 California U.S. Senate poll shows that the Democratic candidate Representative Adam Schiff leads his Republican opponent Steve Garvey by 26.8%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 1, 2024 and October 18, 2024 with a median field date of October 10.
Garvey leads among Republicans. Schiff leads or ties in all other categories.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Schiff and Garvey among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the very blue state of California, there are many more left-leaning voters than the national average and far fewer right-leaning voters.
Schiff dominates among left leaning voters (97%) while Garvey gets only 89% of his core constituency on the right. The voters in the center lean towards Schiff. More importantly: far more people in California lean left than right. Thus, not only does Schiff have stronger support among his base, than Garvey has among his, Schiff’s base is significantly larger than Garvey’s.
Comparisons
In our previous poll (September 21, 2024) Schiff led by 25.4%. In the poll before that (August 12, 2024), Schiff led by 32.6%. In the 2022 California Senate election, Democratic candidate Alex Padillo beat his Republican opponent Mark Meuser by 22.2%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 19, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Adam Schiff | Steve Garvey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 26% | 33% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 26% | 20% | 94% | 6% | |
| Center | 20% | 15% | 56% | 44% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 14% | 13% | 87% | |
| Right | 16% | 18% | 9% | 91% | |
| Region | rural | 16% | 13% | 56% | 44% |
| suburban | 27% | 27% | 56% | 44% | |
| urban | 57% | 60% | 68% | 32% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 17% | 17% | 70% | 30% |
| 30-49 | 38% | 31% | 70% | 30% | |
| 50-64 | 29% | 24% | 66% | 34% | |
| 65+ | 16% | 28% | 50% | 50% | |
| Gender | F | 35% | 53% | 69% | 31% |
| M | 65% | 47% | 57% | 43% | |
| Party | D | 55% | 48% | 93% | 7% |
| R | 23% | 26% | 7% | 93% | |
| I | 13% | 19% | 69% | 31% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 72% | 49% | 56% | 44% |
| Asian | 5% | 11% | 72% | 28% | |
| Latino | 19% | 32% | 62% | 38% | |
| Income | Low | 13% | 15% | 78% | 22% |
| Middle | 32% | 33% | 59% | 41% | |
| High | 55% | 52% | 62% | 38% | |
| Education | HS | 16% | 28% | 63% | 37% |
| Some C | 12% | 24% | 67% | 33% | |
| BSC+ | 72% | 48% | 62% | 38% |