Schiff vs. Garvey · August 12, 2024
Schiff Far Ahead of Garvey in California
ActiVote’s August 12, 2024 California U.S. Senate poll shows that Democratic candidate Representative Adam Schiff leads his Republican opponent Steve Garvey by 32.6%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between July 16, 2024 and August 12, 2024 with a median field date of July 29.
Schiff leads among every single demographic except, logically, Republicans.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Schiff and Garvey among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the very blue state of California, there are many more left-leaning voters than the national average and far fewer right-leaning voters.
Schiff dominates among left leaning voters (94%) while Garvey gets only 82% of his core constituency on the right. The voters in the center lean towards Schiff. More importantly: 53% of California leans left and only 27% leans right. Thus, not only does Schiff have stronger support among his base than Garvey has among his, Schiff’s base is also twice the size of Garvey’s.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · August 12, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Adam Schiff | Steve Garvey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 31% | 32% | 95% | 5% |
| Moderate Left | 26% | 21% | 93% | 7% | |
| Center | 19% | 20% | 55% | 45% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 17% | 26% | 74% | |
| Right | 12% | 10% | 9% | 91% | |
| Region | rural | 17% | 13% | 59% | 41% |
| suburban | 26% | 27% | 71% | 29% | |
| urban | 57% | 60% | 66% | 34% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 31% | 17% | 77% | 23% |
| 30-49 | 36% | 31% | 75% | 25% | |
| 50-64 | 23% | 24% | 64% | 36% | |
| 65+ | 9% | 28% | 53% | 47% | |
| Gender | F | 32% | 53% | 77% | 23% |
| M | 68% | 47% | 54% | 46% | |
| Party | D | 53% | 48% | 95% | 5% |
| R | 24% | 26% | 11% | 89% | |
| I | 11% | 19% | 71% | 29% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 66% | 49% | 60% | 40% |
| Black | 3% | 3% | 86% | 14% | |
| Latino | 25% | 32% | 72% | 28% | |
| Income | Low | 18% | 15% | 75% | 25% |
| Middle | 33% | 33% | 66% | 34% | |
| High | 48% | 52% | 64% | 36% | |
| Education | HS | 15% | 28% | 71% | 29% |
| Some C | 10% | 24% | 75% | 25% | |
| BSC+ | 75% | 48% | 59% | 41% |