California · U.S. Senate · 2024
Schiff vs. Garvey
61.2%
Adam Schiff (D)
38.8%
Steve Garvey (R)
D+22.4%
Final poll · published October 28, 2024 · 400 likely voters · MoE ±4.9%
Election result
D+17.7% Adam Schiff won
Our final poll (D+22.4%) · error:
D+4.7%
How the race moved (4 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · October 28, 2024
Left
98%
Moderate Left
95%
Center
51%
49%
Moderate Right
92%
Right
93%
Adam SchiffSteve Garvey
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Adam Schiff | Steve Garvey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 28% | 33% | 98% | 2% |
| Moderate Left | 31% | 20% | 95% | 5% | |
| Center | 17% | 15% | 51% | 49% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 14% | 8% | 92% | |
| Right | 12% | 18% | 7% | 93% | |
| Region | rural | 16% | 13% | 58% | 42% |
| suburban | 24% | 27% | 54% | 46% | |
| urban | 60% | 60% | 65% | 35% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 17% | 17% | 74% | 26% |
| 30-49 | 42% | 31% | 66% | 34% | |
| 50-64 | 27% | 24% | 59% | 41% | |
| 65+ | 14% | 28% | 51% | 49% | |
| Gender | F | 36% | 53% | 66% | 34% |
| M | 64% | 47% | 56% | 44% | |
| Party | D | 57% | 48% | 92% | 8% |
| R | 23% | 26% | 4% | 96% | |
| I | 13% | 19% | 64% | 36% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 68% | 49% | 58% | 42% |
| Asian | 5% | 11% | 59% | 41% | |
| Latino | 19% | 32% | 63% | 37% | |
| Income | Low | 12% | 15% | 67% | 33% |
| Middle | 32% | 33% | 58% | 42% | |
| High | 56% | 52% | 62% | 38% | |
| Education | HS | 19% | 28% | 60% | 40% |
| Some C | 12% | 24% | 60% | 40% | |
| BSC+ | 69% | 48% | 63% | 37% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Schiff | Garvey | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28, 2024 | 61.2% | 38.8% | D+22.4% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+17.7% | D+4.7% |
| October 19, 2024 | 63.4% | 36.6% | D+26.8% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+17.7% | D+9.1% |
| September 21, 2024 | 62.7% | 37.3% | D+25.4% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+17.7% | D+7.7% |
| August 12, 2024 | 66.3% | 33.7% | D+32.6% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+17.7% | D+14.9% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 400 likely voters in California.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±4.9%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.