Harris vs. Trump · October 11, 2024
Harris Stays Far Ahead in Her Home State
ActiVote’s October 11, 2024 California Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 27.0%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 22, 2024 and October 10, 2024 with a median field date of October 1.
Trump wins 99% of Republicans and leads among those with High school or less. Harris leads among all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the very blue state of California, there are far more left-leaning voters than the national average and far fewer right-leaning voters.
Harris takes almost all (96%) of her core constituency (the left and moderate left). Trump has approximately 12% dissenters among his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Harris and Trump are tied among centrists. The large Harris lead is mostly the result of having many more left-leaning voters than right-leaning voters in blue California.
Comparisons
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in California by 29.2% while in 2016 Clinton beat Trump by 30.1%. In our previous poll (September 21, 2024), Harris led by 28.0%. The poll before that (August 19, 2024), Harris led by 30.6%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 11, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 26% | 33% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 25% | 21% | 6% | 94% | |
| Center | 22% | 15% | 50% | 50% | |
| Moderate Right | 13% | 14% | 86% | 14% | |
| Right | 15% | 17% | 90% | 10% | |
| Region | rural | 14% | 13% | 41% | 59% |
| suburban | 28% | 27% | 37% | 63% | |
| urban | 58% | 60% | 35% | 65% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 19% | 17% | 23% | 77% |
| 30-49 | 37% | 31% | 38% | 62% | |
| 50-64 | 27% | 24% | 41% | 59% | |
| 65+ | 17% | 28% | 40% | 60% | |
| Gender | F | 35% | 53% | 29% | 71% |
| M | 65% | 47% | 45% | 55% | |
| Party | D | 57% | 48% | 5% | 95% |
| R | 23% | 26% | 99% | 1% | |
| I | 11% | 19% | 26% | 74% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 71% | 49% | 39% | 61% |
| Latino | 21% | 32% | 38% | 62% | |
| Asian | 4% | 11% | 39% | 61% | |
| Income | Low | 13% | 15% | 36% | 64% |
| Middle | 32% | 33% | 35% | 65% | |
| High | 54% | 52% | 38% | 62% | |
| Education | HS | 18% | 28% | 58% | 42% |
| Some C | 11% | 24% | 41% | 59% | |
| BSC+ | 72% | 48% | 22% | 78% |