California · President · 2024
Harris vs. Trump
62.8%
Kamala Harris (D)
37.2%
Donald Trump (R)
D+25.6%
Final poll · published October 28, 2024 · 400 likely voters · MoE ±4.9%
Election result
D+20.1% Kamala Harris won
Our final poll (D+25.6%) · error:
D+5.5%
How the race moved (4 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · October 28, 2024
Left
99%
Moderate Left
95%
Center
48%
52%
Moderate Right
89%
11%
Right
92%
Donald TrumpKamala Harris
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 27% | 33% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 30% | 20% | 5% | 95% | |
| Center | 18% | 15% | 48% | 52% | |
| Moderate Right | 12% | 14% | 89% | 11% | |
| Right | 13% | 18% | 92% | 8% | |
| Region | rural | 15% | 13% | 47% | 53% |
| suburban | 24% | 27% | 41% | 59% | |
| urban | 61% | 60% | 33% | 67% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 17% | 17% | 26% | 74% |
| 30-49 | 41% | 31% | 36% | 64% | |
| 50-64 | 26% | 24% | 44% | 56% | |
| 65+ | 16% | 28% | 40% | 60% | |
| Gender | F | 36% | 53% | 32% | 68% |
| M | 64% | 47% | 43% | 57% | |
| Party | D | 56% | 48% | 7% | 93% |
| R | 23% | 26% | 95% | 5% | |
| I | 13% | 19% | 33% | 67% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 71% | 49% | 39% | 61% |
| Latino | 21% | 32% | 38% | 62% | |
| Asian | 4% | 11% | 39% | 61% | |
| Income | Low | 13% | 15% | 36% | 64% |
| Middle | 33% | 33% | 42% | 58% | |
| High | 54% | 52% | 34% | 66% | |
| Education | HS | 21% | 28% | 50% | 50% |
| Some C | 12% | 24% | 47% | 53% | |
| BSC+ | 67% | 48% | 24% | 76% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Trump | Harris | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28, 2024 | 37.2% | 62.8% | D+25.6% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+20.1% | D+5.5% |
| October 11, 2024 | 36.5% | 63.5% | D+27.0% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+20.1% | D+6.9% |
| September 21, 2024 | 36.0% | 64.0% | D+28.0% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+20.1% | D+7.9% |
| August 19, 2024 | 34.7% | 65.3% | D+30.6% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+20.1% | D+10.5% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 400 likely voters in California.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±4.9%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.