Gallego vs. Lake · November 1, 2024
Gallego Extends Lead in Arizona Senate Race
ActiVote’s November 1, 2024 Arizona U.S. Senate poll shows that Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake by 8.6%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 5, 2024 and October 31, 2024 with a median field date of October 18.
Lake leads among men, Republicans, and low income voters. Gallego leads or ties among all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Gallego and Lake among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of Arizona, these groups deviate slightly from the national average.
Gallego gets 96% of his core constituents (left and moderate left), while Lake gets 93% of hers: the right and moderate right. Gallego has a large lead among centrists.
Comparisons
In our previous poll of October 11, 2024 Gallego was leading by 5.6%. In 2022, incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly beat Republican Blake Masters by 4.9% in the Arizona Senate elections. In 2020 Democrat Mark Kelly beat incumbent Republican Martha McSally by 2.3%. In 2018, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema beat Republican Martha McSally by 2.3%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · November 1, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Ruben Gallego | Kari Lake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 25% | 21% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 21% | 19% | 94% | 6% | |
| Center | 18% | 18% | 66% | 34% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 18% | 12% | 88% | |
| Right | 21% | 23% | 3% | 97% | |
| Region | rural | 18% | 25% | 55% | 45% |
| suburban | 36% | 34% | 54% | 46% | |
| urban | 46% | 41% | 53% | 47% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 19% | 14% | 63% | 37% |
| 30-49 | 35% | 27% | 52% | 48% | |
| 50-64 | 26% | 24% | 51% | 49% | |
| 65+ | 19% | 35% | 54% | 46% | |
| Gender | F | 38% | 53% | 59% | 41% |
| M | 62% | 47% | 49% | 51% | |
| Party | D | 39% | 31% | 98% | 2% |
| R | 34% | 39% | 9% | 91% | |
| I | 26% | 28% | 64% | 36% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 80% | 74% | 50% | 50% |
| Black | 3% | 1% | 68% | 32% | |
| Latino | 15% | 22% | 73% | 27% | |
| Income | Low | 14% | 18% | 42% | 58% |
| Middle | 40% | 45% | 57% | 43% | |
| High | 46% | 36% | 57% | 43% | |
| Education | HS | 22% | 28% | 50% | 50% |
| Some C | 11% | 28% | 52% | 48% | |
| BSC+ | 67% | 44% | 58% | 42% |