Arizona · U.S. Senate · 2024
Gallego vs. Lake
54.3%
Ruben Gallego (D)
45.7%
Kari Lake (R)
D+8.6%
Final poll · published November 1, 2024 · 400 likely voters · MoE ±4.9%
Election result
D+2.4% Ruben Gallego won
Our final poll (D+8.6%) · error:
D+6.2%
How the race moved (2 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · November 1, 2024
Left
99%
Moderate Left
94%
Center
66%
34%
Moderate Right
12%
88%
Right
97%
Ruben GallegoKari Lake
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Ruben Gallego | Kari Lake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 25% | 21% | 99% | 1% |
| Moderate Left | 21% | 19% | 94% | 6% | |
| Center | 18% | 18% | 66% | 34% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 18% | 12% | 88% | |
| Right | 21% | 23% | 3% | 97% | |
| Region | rural | 18% | 25% | 55% | 45% |
| suburban | 36% | 34% | 54% | 46% | |
| urban | 46% | 41% | 53% | 47% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 19% | 14% | 63% | 37% |
| 30-49 | 35% | 27% | 52% | 48% | |
| 50-64 | 26% | 24% | 51% | 49% | |
| 65+ | 19% | 35% | 54% | 46% | |
| Gender | F | 38% | 53% | 59% | 41% |
| M | 62% | 47% | 49% | 51% | |
| Party | D | 39% | 31% | 98% | 2% |
| R | 34% | 39% | 9% | 91% | |
| I | 26% | 28% | 64% | 36% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 80% | 74% | 50% | 50% |
| Black | 3% | 1% | 68% | 32% | |
| Latino | 15% | 22% | 73% | 27% | |
| Income | Low | 14% | 18% | 42% | 58% |
| Middle | 40% | 45% | 57% | 43% | |
| High | 46% | 36% | 57% | 43% | |
| Education | HS | 22% | 28% | 50% | 50% |
| Some C | 11% | 28% | 52% | 48% | |
| BSC+ | 67% | 44% | 58% | 42% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Gallego | Lake | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 1, 2024 | 54.3% | 45.7% | D+8.6% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+2.4% | D+6.2% |
| October 10, 2024 | 52.8% | 47.2% | D+5.6% | 400 | ±4.9% | D+2.4% | D+3.2% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 400 likely voters in Arizona.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±4.9%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.