Trump vs. Harris · November 1, 2024
Trump leads in Arizona
ActiVote’s November 2, 2024 Arizona Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 1.8%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 8, 2024 and November 1, 2024 with a median field date of October 20.
Harris leads among suburban voters, those aged 30-49, women, Democrats, Independents, Latinos, low-income voters and those with a college degree. Trump leads or ties all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of Arizona, these groups slightly deviate from the national average.
Harris gets 95% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 95% of his: the right and moderate right. Trump has a 6% lead among centrists.
Comparisons
In our previous poll of October 9, Trump led by 1.4%. In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Arizona by 0.3% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 3.5%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · November 1, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 21% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 22% | 19% | 10% | 90% | |
| Center | 19% | 18% | 53% | 47% | |
| Moderate Right | 16% | 18% | 90% | 10% | |
| Right | 20% | 23% | 99% | 1% | |
| Region | rural | 19% | 25% | 55% | 45% |
| suburban | 36% | 34% | 49% | 51% | |
| urban | 45% | 41% | 50% | 50% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 19% | 14% | 51% | 49% |
| 30-49 | 34% | 27% | 47% | 53% | |
| 50-64 | 26% | 24% | 56% | 44% | |
| 65+ | 20% | 35% | 51% | 49% | |
| Gender | F | 40% | 53% | 46% | 54% |
| M | 60% | 47% | 56% | 44% | |
| Party | D | 36% | 31% | 2% | 98% |
| R | 34% | 39% | 95% | 5% | |
| I | 27% | 28% | 45% | 55% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 79% | 74% | 56% | 44% |
| Black | 4% | 1% | 38% | 62% | |
| Latino | 14% | 22% | 37% | 63% | |
| Income | Low | 14% | 18% | 45% | 55% |
| Middle | 40% | 45% | 52% | 48% | |
| High | 46% | 36% | 53% | 47% | |
| Education | HS | 21% | 28% | 54% | 46% |
| Some C | 11% | 28% | 51% | 49% | |
| BSC+ | 67% | 44% | 49% | 51% |