Trump vs. Harris · October 9, 2024
Trump has small lead in Arizona
ActiVote’s October 9, 2024 Arizona Presidential poll shows that former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 1.4%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 6, 2024 and October 8, 2024 with a median field date of September 22.
Harris leads among suburban and urban voters, younger voters (18-49), women, Democrats, Independents, Latino voters, low-income voters and those with a college degree. Trump leads or ties all other groups.
Political Spectrum
The crosstabs below show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of Arizona, these groups deviate slightly from the national average.
Harris gets 94% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 93% of his: the right and moderate right. Trump has an 8% lead among centrists.
Comparisons
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Arizona by 0.3% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 3.5%.
Crosstabs
Weighted results by demographic group · October 9, 2024
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 26% | 21% | 3% | 97% |
| Moderate Left | 22% | 19% | 9% | 91% | |
| Center | 18% | 18% | 54% | 46% | |
| Moderate Right | 15% | 18% | 88% | 12% | |
| Right | 20% | 23% | 99% | 1% | |
| Region | rural | 17% | 25% | 65% | 35% |
| suburban | 37% | 34% | 46% | 54% | |
| urban | 46% | 41% | 46% | 54% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 19% | 14% | 48% | 52% |
| 30-49 | 33% | 27% | 46% | 54% | |
| 50-64 | 26% | 24% | 53% | 47% | |
| 65+ | 22% | 35% | 54% | 46% | |
| Gender | F | 40% | 53% | 45% | 55% |
| M | 60% | 47% | 57% | 43% | |
| Party | D | 38% | 31% | 2% | 98% |
| R | 35% | 39% | 94% | 6% | |
| I | 25% | 28% | 49% | 51% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 82% | 74% | 57% | 43% |
| Black | 2% | 1% | 5% | 95% | |
| Latino | 14% | 22% | 35% | 65% | |
| Income | Low | 15% | 18% | 47% | 53% |
| Middle | 38% | 45% | 50% | 50% | |
| High | 46% | 36% | 54% | 46% | |
| Education | HS | 23% | 28% | 51% | 49% |
| Some C | 10% | 28% | 65% | 35% | |
| BSC+ | 67% | 44% | 41% | 59% |