Arizona · President · 2024
Trump vs. Harris
50.9%
Donald Trump (R)
49.1%
Kamala Harris (D)
R+1.8%
Final poll · published November 1, 2024 · 400 likely voters · MoE ±4.9%
Election result
R+5.5% Donald Trump won
Our final poll (R+1.8%) · error:
D+3.7%
How the race moved (2 polls)
Crosstabs
Final poll, weighted results by demographic group · November 1, 2024
Left
99%
Moderate Left
10%
90%
Center
53%
47%
Moderate Right
90%
10%
Right
99%
Donald TrumpKamala Harris
The full crosstab table
 | 400 LV | Unweighted | Weighted | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ±4.9% MoE | 100% | 100% | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| Political Spectrum | Left | 24% | 21% | 1% | 99% |
| Moderate Left | 22% | 19% | 10% | 90% | |
| Center | 19% | 18% | 53% | 47% | |
| Moderate Right | 16% | 18% | 90% | 10% | |
| Right | 20% | 23% | 99% | 1% | |
| Region | rural | 19% | 25% | 55% | 45% |
| suburban | 36% | 34% | 49% | 51% | |
| urban | 45% | 41% | 50% | 50% | |
| Age | 18-29 | 19% | 14% | 51% | 49% |
| 30-49 | 34% | 27% | 47% | 53% | |
| 50-64 | 26% | 24% | 56% | 44% | |
| 65+ | 20% | 35% | 51% | 49% | |
| Gender | F | 40% | 53% | 46% | 54% |
| M | 60% | 47% | 56% | 44% | |
| Party | D | 36% | 31% | 2% | 98% |
| R | 34% | 39% | 95% | 5% | |
| I | 27% | 28% | 45% | 55% | |
| Ethnicity | White | 79% | 74% | 56% | 44% |
| Black | 4% | 1% | 38% | 62% | |
| Latino | 14% | 22% | 37% | 63% | |
| Income | Low | 14% | 18% | 45% | 55% |
| Middle | 40% | 45% | 52% | 48% | |
| High | 46% | 36% | 53% | 47% | |
| Education | HS | 21% | 28% | 54% | 46% |
| Some C | 11% | 28% | 51% | 49% | |
| BSC+ | 67% | 44% | 49% | 51% |
Every poll in this race
| Published | Trump | Harris | Gap | Sample | MoE | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 1, 2024 | 50.9% | 49.1% | R+1.8% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+5.5% | D+3.7% |
| October 9, 2024 | 50.7% | 49.3% | R+1.4% | 400 | ±4.9% | R+5.5% | D+4.1% |
Methodology.
Latest poll: 400 likely voters in Arizona.
Responses weighted by Demographics and Spectrum. Average expected error ±4.9%. See
Why trust our polls?
for the methodology, disclosures and accuracy record.