Moreno Narrowly Ahead of Brown

ActiVote’s October 29, 2024 Ohio U.S. Senate poll shows that the Republican challenger Bernie Moreno has a 2.0% lead over incumbent Democratic Senator Brown. 

The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 14, 2024 and October 28, 2024 with a median field date of October 21. 

Please note that in this poll the threshold for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Latino voters (5%) was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.

Brown leads among urban voters, young voters (18-29), the elderly (65+), women, Democrats, Blacks, low income voters and those with a college degree. Moreno leads or ties all other groups.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Moreno and Brown among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light red state of Ohio, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.

Brown has support from the left and moderate left completely locked up: 95% support him. Moreno has the full support of the right and moderate right (90%). Centrists lean towards Brown. Moreno compensates for the dissenters on the right by the fact that there are more right-leaning voters in Ohio than left-leaning voters, edging out a small lead.

Comparisons

In our previous poll of October 21, Moreno led by 3.8%. In our second poll (September 22, 2024), Moreno led by 2.2%. In our first poll (August 12, 2024), Brown led by 5.0%.

In the 2022 Ohio Senate election, Republican candidate JD Vance beat his Democratic opponent Tim Ryan by 6.1%. In 2018 incumbent Democratic Senator Brown beat his Republican challenger Jim Renacci by 6.8%.  

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