Moreno Inches Ahead of Brown in Ohio

ActiVote’s September 22, 2024 Ohio U.S. Senate poll shows that the Republican challenger Bernie Moreno has taken a small lead. He is now ahead of incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown by 2.2%. 

The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 16, 2024 and September 22, 2024 with a median field date of September 4. 

Please note that in this poll the threshold for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Black and Latino voters (5%) was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.

Moreno leads among rural and suburban voters, while brown leads among urban voters. Brown leads among the youngest and oldest voters, while Moreno leads those aged 30-64. Brown leads among women, while Moreno leads among men. Brown leads among Democrats, while Moreno leads among Republicans and Independents. Moreno leads among White voters. Brown leads among low-income voters, while Moreno leads among middle and high income voters. The education category is somewhat surprising, where Brown has a small lead among those with High School or less, while Moreno has a small lead among those with a 4-year college degree.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Moreno and Brown among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light red state of Ohio, there are more right-leaning voters than the national average and fewer left-leaning voters.

Brown has support from the left and moderate left completely locked up: 98% support him. Moreno has the full support of the right (97%), but only 85% of the moderate right. Centrists are 50/50 split. Moreno compensates for the dissenters on the right by the fact that there are more right-leaning voters in Ohio than left-leaning voters, edging out a small lead.

Comparisons

In the 2022 Ohio Senate election, Republican candidate JD Vance beat his Democratic opponent Tim Ryan by 6.1%. In 2018 incumbent Democratic Senator Brown beat his Republican challenger Jim Renacci by 6.8%.  In our previous poll (August 12, 2024), Brown led by 5.0%.

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Check out our polling page for our latest polls. For further details see our polling methodology, AAPOR Transparency Initiative disclosures, 538 pollster rating disclosures, and accuracy analysis.