Klobuchar Has Double-Digit Lead in Minnesota

ActiVote’s November 1, 2024 Minnesota U.S. Senate poll shows that the Democratic incumbent Amy Klobuchar leads against her Republican challenger Royce White by 12.8%. 

The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between October 8, 2024 and October 31, 2024 with a median field date of October 20. 

Please note that Minnesota does not include party affiliation in their voter registration. Therefore, our D/R/I categories are estimates and less accurate than for states which do include party affiliation in their voter registration. As a result, the number of crossover votes will seem higher than expected.

White leads among rural voters, those aged 30-49, Independents and those with at most a high school diploma. Klobuchar leads all other categories.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Klobuchar and White among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light-blue state of Minnesota the distribution of right-leaning and left-leaning voters slightly deviates from the national distribution.

Both dominate their core constituencies: Klobuchar takes 99% of the left and moderate left voters, while White takes 93% of the right and moderate right voters. White has a 6% lead among centrists. 

Comparisons

In November 2020, incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith beat her Republican challenger Jason Lewis by 5.2%. In November 2018, incumbent Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar beat her Republican challenger, Jim Neuburger, by 24.1%.

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