Kirsten Gillibrand Far Ahead in New York U.S. Senate Race

ActiVote’s August 5, 2024 New York U.S. Senate poll shows that Democratic incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand leads her Republican challenger Mike Sapraicone by 26.4%. 

The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between July 8, 2024 and August 5, 2024 with a median field date of July 22. 

Gillibrand has small leads among rural and suburban voters and a larger lead among urban voters in a state with almost 60% urbanites. Gillibrand has significant leads among all age groups, as well as with both men and women. While Gillibrand and Sapraicone both claim virtually all voters of their parties, Sapraicone has a small lead among independent voters. Gillibrand wins virtually all Black voters, but also leads with Whites and Latinos. Of the income and education categories, only among those with highschool or less education is the race a toss-up.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Gillibrand and Sapraicone among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the blue state of New York, there are more left-leaning voters than the national average and fewer right-leaning voters.

Gillibrand dominates among left leaning voters (92%) while Sapraicone has less control over his core constituency on the right (79%). The center leans slightly towards Gillibrand.

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