Hawley Leads in Missouri

ActiVote’s October 2, 2024 Missouri Senate poll shows that incumbent Republican Senator Josh Hawley leads against his Democratic challenger Lucas Kunce by 8.0%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 1, 2024 and October 1, 2024 with a median field date of September 16. 

Please note that in this poll the threshold of 5% for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Black and Latino voters was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.

Kunce leads among urban voters, young voters (18-29), Democrats and voters with some college. Hawley leads or ties among all other groups. 

Please note that Missouri does not register voters by party affiliation so that the inferred party affiliation from the voter file is much less accurate than in some other states, explaining why both candidates lose over ⅓ of those estimated to be affiliated with their party. These crosstab elements are therefore best ignored in this poll.

Political Spectrum

The following graph and table show the support for Kunce and Hawley among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Missouri, there are fewer left-leaning voters than the national average and more right-leaning voters.

Kunce gets 94% of his core constituency (the left and moderate left), while Hawley gets 87% of his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Hawley also has a 16% lead among the centrists. Hawley’s lead is further amplified by having more right-leaning voters than left-leaning voters in red Missouri.

Comparisons

In 2022, Republican Eric Schmidt beat his Democratic opponent Trudy Busch Valentine by 13.2%. In 2018, Republican challenger Josh Hawley beat Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill by 5.8%.

Want to be included in our next poll? Check out the app!

Check out our polling page for our latest polls. For further details see our FAQs, polling methodology, AAPOR Transparency Initiative disclosures, 538 pollster rating disclosures, and accuracy analysis.