Harris Still in the Lead

ActiVote’s September 9, 2024 presidential poll finds that Vice President Harris has a lead of 2.4% on former President Trump. The poll was in the field between September 3 and September 9 (median field date of September 6). The poll was among 1000 likely presidential election voters and has an average expected error of 3.1%.

Please note that in our unweighted sample Black voters were underrepresented and did not make the threshold for reporting in our crosstabs (see also our answer 4 in our answers to 538’s transparency questions). These voters are, upweighted to the right level of representation, still part of the overall results.

Trump leads among rural voters, while Harris leads among suburban and urban voters. Harris leads among the youngest and oldest voters, while Trump has narrow leads among those age 30-64. 

Harris leads among women, while Trump leads among men. Both get 82%+ of those affiliated (30 states) or estimated to be affiliated (20 states) with their party, while they are essentially tied among independents. Trump leads among White voters, while Harris leads among Latino voters. 

There are only small differences between income and education categories. Harris and Trump are essentially tied among the low and middle income voters, while Harris leads among those with the highest incomes. Trump leads among those with the least education, they are (almost) tied among those with some college and Harris leads among those with at least a college degree.

Political Spectrum 

The following table and graph show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each

Both Harris (96%) and Trump (95%) do an excellent job locking in their base. Harris has an 8% point lead among centrists.

Daily Tracking Poll

ActiVote runs (internally) a daily poll consisting of the last 1000 user responses to determine the state of the race. As soon as such a daily poll no longer overlaps in field period with our previous published poll, we publish that poll with all relevant details. The graph below shows the daily movement in the top-line result of our tracking poll, starting July 27th. It is only provided as an illustration of possible momentum in the race and overall movement over time based on ActiVote polling.

The graph suggests that Harris’ poll numbers improved steadily for about 3-4 weeks after Biden dropped out, followed by a period of 2 weeks where it hovered around a 5-point lead, which subsequently came down to a 2-3% lead around Labor day, and has stayed there since. The square dots in the graph indicate published polls which can be found on our polling page.

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Check out our polling page for our latest polls. For further details see our polling methodology, AAPOR Transparency Initiative disclosures, 538 pollster rating disclosures, and accuracy analysis.