Harris Leaps Ahead of Trump

ActiVote’s August 14, 2024 presidential poll finds that Vice President Harris has opened up a lead of 4.8% on former President Trump. The poll was in the field between August 7 and August 14 (median field date of August 11). The poll was among 1000 likely presidential election voters and has an average expected error of 3.1%.

Trump leads among rural voters, but Harris leads by a wider margin among urban voters. They tie among suburban voters. Harris is ahead (or tied) among all age groups, but her main advantage is with voters under 50. Harris leads among women, while Trump leads among men.

Both have locked in about 90% of their respective parties, with Harris having a slight lead among independents. Trump leads among White voters. Harris takes over 80% of the Black vote and over 60% of the Latino vote.

Harris leads or ties among all income groups. Those with High School or less prefer Trump, but those with some college or more prefer Harris.

Political Spectrum 

The following table and graph show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each

Harris does a better job of locking in her base (left and moderate left) voters, taking 96% of those voters. Trump only gets 91% of his base, with especially among the moderate right quite some dissenters (14%). Also, Harris has a small lead among centrists. 

Daily Tracking Poll

ActiVote runs (internally) a daily poll consisting of the last 1000 user responses to determine the state of the race. As soon as such a daily poll no longer overlaps in field period with our previous published poll, we publish that poll with all relevant details. The graph below shows the daily movement in the top-line result of our tracking poll, starting July 27th. It is only provided as an illustration of possible momentum in the race and overall movement over time based on ActiVote polling.

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Check out our polling page for our latest polls. For further details see our polling methodology, AAPOR Transparency Initiative disclosures, 538 pollster rating disclosures, and accuracy analysis.