Harris Leads in Wisconsin

ActiVote’s September 30, 2024 Wisconsin Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 4.2%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 29, 2024 and September 29, 2024 with a median field date of September 13. 

Trump leads among rural voters, those aged 50-64, men, Republicans, White voters, Middle income voters and those with High school or less. Harris leads or ties all other categories.

Please note that in the state of Wisconsin, three of the categories normally displayed in our crosstabs have a target of less than 5% of the overall population: young voters (18-29), Black voters, and Latino voters. Therefore, they are not shown in the crosstabs. Participants in these categories are included in the overall result.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. The groups in the swing state of Wisconsin are almost identical to the national average.

Both Harris (96%) and Trump (92%) get the vast majority of their core constituencies: the left and moderate left for Harris, and the right and moderate right for Trump. Trump leads among the center, but not by enough to compensate for Harris’ larger hold on her base.

Comparisons

In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Wisconsin by 0.6% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 0.8%. 

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