Harris’ Lead Significantly Reduced
ActiVote’s September 2, 2024 presidential poll finds that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 1.6%. The poll was in the field between August 25 and September 2 (median field date of August 29).
The poll was among 1000 likely presidential election voters and has an average expected error of 3.1%.
Trump leads among rural voters, while Harris leads among suburban and urban voters. Harris leads among those younger than 50, while Trump leads among those 65+. Harris leads among women, while Trump leads among men. Both get 80%+ of those affiliated with their party, while they are tied among independents. Trump leads among White and Latino voters, while Harris leads among Black voters. They essentially tie in all income categories. Harris leads among the highest educated, while Trump leads among those without a college agree.
Political Spectrum
The following table and graph show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each
Harris does a slightly better job of locking in her base (left and moderate left) voters, taking 97% of those voters. Trump gets 94% of his base. Trump has a small lead among centrists.
Daily Tracking Poll
ActiVote runs (internally) a daily poll consisting of the last 1000 user responses to determine the state of the race. As soon as such a daily poll no longer overlaps in field period with our previous published poll, we publish that poll with all relevant details. The graph below shows the daily movement in the top-line result of our tracking poll, starting July 27th. It is only provided as an illustration of possible momentum in the race and overall movement over time based on ActiVote polling.
The graph suggests that Harris’ poll numbers improved steadily for about 3-4 weeks after Biden dropped out, followed by a period of 2 weeks where it hovered around a 5-point lead. In the past 5 days that 5-point lead has been steadily cut to just under 2 percent.
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Check out our polling page for our latest polls. For further details see our polling methodology, AAPOR Transparency Initiative disclosures, 538 pollster rating disclosures, and accuracy analysis.
