Harris Has Steady Lead
ActiVote’s August 23, 2024 presidential poll finds that Vice President Harris has a lead of 5.2% on former President Trump. The poll was in the field between August 15 and August 23 (median field date of August 19). The poll was among 1000 likely presidential election voters and has an average expected error of 3.1%.
Trump leads among rural voters, but Harris leads by a wider margin among urban voters and also has a small lead among suburbanites. Harris leads among the youngest and oldest voters, while Trump narrowly leads among the 30-64 year olds.
Harris leads among women, while Trump leads among men. Both lead comfortably among their respective parties, while Harris has a small lead among independents. Trump leads among Whites, while Harris leads among Blacks and Latinos.
They are nearly tied among the lower income groups, while Harris leads among those with the highest incomes. The candidates are tied among those with High School or less. Trump leads among those with some college and Harris leads among the most highly educated.
Political Spectrum
The following table and graph show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each
Harris does a slightly better job of locking in her base (left and moderate left) voters, taking 95% of those voters. Trump only gets 92% of his base, with especially among the moderate right quite some dissenters (12%). Also, Harris has a significant lead (12%) among centrists.
Daily Tracking Poll
ActiVote runs (internally) a daily poll consisting of the last 1000 user responses to determine the state of the race. As soon as such a daily poll no longer overlaps in field period with our previous published poll, we publish that poll with all relevant details. The graph below shows the daily movement in the top-line result of our tracking poll, starting July 27th. It is only provided as an illustration of possible momentum in the race and overall movement over time based on ActiVote polling.
The graph suggests that Harris’ poll numbers improved steadily for about 3-4 weeks after Biden dropped out, followed by a period of now 10 days where it hovers around a 5-point lead.
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