Harris has a Smaller Lead in New York than in Previous Presidential Elections

ActiVote’s Aug 21, 2024 New York Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 16.6%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 1, 2024 and August 21, 2024 with a median field date of August 11. 

Trump has a small lead among rural New Yorkers and those with lowest education levels. Also, he gets over 90% of Republicans. Harris leads among all other groups.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the blue state of New York, there are more left-leaning voters than the national average and fewer right-leaning voters.

Harris gets 92% of her core constituency (the left and moderate left). Trump has slightly more dissenters (13%) among his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Harris also has a significant edge among the centrists (+16%). The large Harris lead is further amplified by having many more left-leaning voters than right-leaning voters in blue New York.

Comparisons

In 2020, Biden beat Trump in New York by 23.1% while in 2016 Clinton beat Trump by 23.5%. Thus, a Harris lead of 16.6% is a significant underperformance compared to the two previous presidential elections.

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