Harris Far Ahead in Her Home State

ActiVote’s Aug 19, 2024 California Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 30.6%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 2, 2024 and August 19, 2024 with a median field date of August 10. 

Trump has a small lead among rural Californians. He further leads among those with lowest incomes and educational levels. Also, he gets almost 90% of Republicans. Harris leads among all other groups.

Political Spectrum

The following graph and table show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the very blue state of California, there are more far more left-leaning voters than the national average and far fewer right-leaning voters.

Harris takes almost all (94%) of her core constituency (the left and moderate left). Trump has approximately 20% dissenters among his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Harris also has a significant edge among the centrists (+16%). The large Harris lead is further amplified by having many more left-leaning voters than right-leaning voters in blue California.

Comparisons

In 2020, Biden beat Trump in California by 29.2% while in 2016 Clinton beat Trump by 30.1%. Thus, a Harris lead of 30.6% in her home state, does not seem out of the ordinary.

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