Harris Barely Ahead of Trump
ActiVote’s October 3, 2024 presidential poll finds that Vice President Harris has a lead of 1.4% on former President Trump. The poll was in the field between September 25 and October 2 (median field date of September 29). The poll was among 1000 likely presidential election voters and has an average expected error of 3.1%.
Trump leads among rural voters and has a minimal lead among suburban voters, while Harris leads among urban voters. Harris leads among younger voters (18-49) while Trump leads among older voters (50+). Harris leads among women, while Trump leads among men. Both get about 85% of those affiliated (30 states) or estimated to be affiliated (20 states) with their party, while Harris has a narrow lead among independents. Trump leads among White voters, while Harris gets 76% of the Black vote and a majority of Latino voters. There are only small differences between income and education categories, where Harris has small leads among low and middle income voters, and those with some college or more. Trump leads among those with the highest incomes and those with just High school or less in education.
Political Spectrum
The following table and graph show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each
Both Harris (97%) and Trump (94%) do an excellent job locking in their base. Trump has a small lead among centrists.
Daily Tracking Poll
ActiVote runs (internally) a daily poll consisting of the last 1000 user responses to determine the state of the race. As soon as such a daily poll no longer overlaps in field period with our previous published poll, we publish that poll with all relevant details. The graph below shows the daily movement in the top-line result of our tracking poll, starting July 27th. It is only provided as an illustration of possible momentum in the race and overall movement over time based on ActiVote polling.
The graph suggests that Harris’ poll numbers improved steadily for about 3-4 weeks after Biden dropped out, followed by a period of 2 weeks where it hovered around a 5-point lead, which came down to a 2-3% lead around Labor day, and stayed there for a while, before starting a steady climb post the September 10 debate. Since then her overall numbers have slowly deteriorated to now a minimal lead of just over 1%.
The square dots in the graph indicate published polls which can be found at our polling page.
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Check out our polling page for our latest polls. For further details see our polling methodology, AAPOR Transparency Initiative disclosures, 538 pollster rating disclosures, and accuracy analysis.
