Harris and Trump Essentially Tied

Victor Allis Company news August 6, 2024 | 0

ActiVote’s August 6, 2024 presidential polls finds that in a two-way matchup former President Trump and current Vice President Harris are exactly tied (50.0%-50.0%). In a three-way matchup including Robert Kennedy Jr., Harris is ahead by 0.6%.

The polls were each among 1000 likely presidential election voters and have an average expected error of 3.1%. They were in the field between July 30 and August 6 (median field date of August 2).

Trump vs. Harris

Trump is strongest among rural voters, while Harris has the edge among suburban and urban voters. Harris wins the voters under 50, while Trump wins voters over 50. Trump wins men, while Harris wins women. Both win a large majority of those affiliated with their party, while Trump has a lead among independents. Trump wins White voters, while Harris wins Black voters. Latinos are almost evenly divided. In the income and education categories, we find only small differences.

Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy

The overall picture does not change much with Kennedy in the mix, although Kennedy takes slightly more voters from Trump than from Harris. A detailed analysis of key losses to Kennedy is showing in the following table:

Trump loses 5.6% of his voters to Kennedy, while Harris loses just 4.9%. In most categories, both candidates lose approximately equally to Kennedy, but a few groups stand out: Kennedy takes many more youngsters from Trump than from Harris, while Harris loses more voters in the 30-49 age category. Also, Trump loses more Blacks and Latinos than Harris does. The biggest hit for Harris is among those with some college education.

Political Spectrum

The following tables and graphs below show the support for Trump, Harris and Kennedy among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each

Trump vs. Harris

Both candidates do approximately equally well on their side of the spectrum: Harris gets 94% of the left leaning voters, while Trump gets 93% of the right leaning voters. Trump has a small advantage in the center, which overall evens things out.

Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy

Kennedy takes slightly more centrist votes from Trump (12%) than from Harris (11%), and slightly more of Trump’s supporters on the right than from Harris’ supporters on the left, explaining the small lead for Harris in this 3-way matchup.

Daily Tracking Poll

ActiVote runs (internally) a daily poll consisting of the last 1000 user responses to determine the state of the race. As soon as such a daily poll no longer overlaps (in field period) with our previous published poll, we publish that poll with all relevant details. The graph below shows the daily movement in the top-line result of our tracking poll, starting July 27th. It is only provided as an illustration of possible momentum in the race and overall movement over time based on ActiVote polling.