Harris and Trump essentially tied in Michigan

ActiVote’s Aug 28, 2024 Michigan Presidential poll shows that Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by just 0.2%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between July 28, 2024 and August 28, 2024 with a median field date of August 12. 

Please note that party affiliation in Michigan is based on estimated party affiliation (using state voter record and statistical modeling). In the swing state of Michigan, the number of voters that are estimated to be Democrats among likely voters (55%) far outweighs the number of voters that are estimated to be Republicans among likely voters (30%). Estimated party affiliation is not a perfect measure of current leanings as evidenced by the fact that 21% of those deemed Democrats in our poll actually support the Republican candidate. However, in states that do not include party affiliation in their voter registration, it is the best information available to us.

Harris leads among urban voters, while Trump leads among rural and suburban voters. Harris leads among the youngest voters, while Trump leads among those 50-64 old. Harris narrowly wins the elderly. 

Harris leads among women, while Trump leads among men. Harris wins almost 80% of those estimated to be Democrat, while Trump wins almost 90% of those estimated to be Republican and almost 80% of those estimated to be Independents.

Trump has a narrow lead among White voters. Our samples for Blacks, Latinos and Asians are too small to provide details on their leanings, but they are included in the overall result.

Harris wins the lowest incomes, while Trump wins the middle incomes. They are essentially tied among the highest incomes. The education results are surprising and potentially an artifact of the relatively small sample size: those with High School or less lean towards Harris while those with a 4-year college degree lean towards Trump.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Harris and Trump among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. The groups in the swing state of Michigan are of slightly different sizes than the national average.

Harris gets 92% of her core constituents (left and moderate left), while Trump gets 94% his: the right and moderate right. Harris has a small lead among the centrists.

Comparisons

In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Michigan by 2.8% while in 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 0.2%. Thus, a Harris lead of 0.2% is in the ballpark of those previous elections.

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