Cruz has a small lead in Texas
ActiVote’s October 1, 2024 Texas U.S. Senate poll shows that the Republican incumbent Senator Ted Cruz leads his Democratic challenger U.S. Representative Colin Allred by 4.8%.
The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 5, 2024 and September 30, 2024 with a median field date of September 17.
Please note that Texas does not register voters by party affiliation. The estimated party affiliation we retrieve for our users is imperfect, which leads to the impression that there are a larger percentage of dissenters per party than if party affiliation is based on asking participants what they currently identify as.
Allred leads among urban voters, the youngest voters (18-29) and those aged 50-64, women, Democrats, Blacks, Latinos and those with the lowest incomes.
Political Spectrum
The following table and graph show the support for Cruz and Allred among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light red state of Texas the distribution of voters is not exactly equal to the national distribution.
Both dominate their core constituencies: Allred takes 96% of the left and moderate left voters, while Cruz takes 92% of the right and moderate right voters. Allred has a significant lead among centrists. The overall lead for Cruz is the result of the larger number of right leaning voters (52%) than left leaning voters (38%) in Texas.
Comparisons
Our July 19, 2024 poll had Cruz +7.8%, while our August 29, 2024 poll had Cruz up 10.2%. In November 2022, incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn beat his Democratic challenger Mary Jennings Hegar by 9.6%. In November 2018, Cruz beat his Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 2.6%.
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