Cruz Extends Lead in Texas

ActiVote’s August 29, 2024 Texas U.S. Senate poll shows that the Republican incumbent Senator Ted Cruz leads his Democratic challenger U.S. Representative Colin Allred by 10.4%. 

The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 13, 2024 and August 29, 2024 with a median field date of August 21. 

Allred leads among urban voters, the youngest voters (18-29), Democrats, Blacks and those with some college. He also ties among women and those with the lowest incomes. Cruz leads all other categories.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Cruz and Allred among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the light red state of Texas the distribution of voters does not equal the national distribution.

Both dominate their core constituencies: Allred takes 99% of the left and moderate left voters, while Cruz takes 97% of the right and moderate right voters. Allred has a small lead among centrists. The overall lead for Cruz is the result of the larger number of right leaning voters (52%) than left leaning voters (38%) in Texas.

Comparisons

Our July 19, 2024 poll had Cruz +7.8%. In November 2022, incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn beat his Democratic challenger Mary Jennings Hegar by 9.6%. In November 2018, Cruz beat his Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 2.6%.

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