Casey’s Lead Reduced in Pennsylvania

ActiVote’s October 8, 2024 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate poll shows that the Democratic 3-term incumbent Senator Bob Casey leads his Republican challenger David McCormick by 6.2%. 

The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 6, 2024 and October 7, 2024 with a median field date of September 22. 

Please note that in this poll the threshold of 5% for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Latino voters was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.

McCormick leads among rural voters, the elderly (65+), Republicans and White voters. Casey leads or ties among all other groups.

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Casey and McCormick among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the swing state of Pennsylvania, the distribution of voters is not exactly equal to the national distribution.

Casey dominates among left leaning voters (97%) while McCormick gets 92% of his core constituency on the right. Casey has a 12% lead among centrists. 

Comparisons

In 2022, Democratic candidate John Fetterman beat his Republican opponent Mehmet Oz by 4.9%. In 2018, incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey beat his Republican challenger Lou Barletta by 13.1%. Our previous poll of August 23, 2024 found a Casey lead of 9.8%.

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