Blackburn Stays Far Ahead in Tennessee

ActiVote’s October 19, 2024 Tennessee U.S. Senate poll shows that the Republican incumbent Senator Marsha Blackburn leads her Democratic challenger State Representative Gloria Johnson by 22.6%. 

The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 14, 2024 and October 18, 2024 with a median field date of October 1. 

Johnson leads among voters between 30-49, Democrats, Black voters and those with some college. Blackburn leads among all other groups. 

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Blackburn and Johnson among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Tennessee there are significantly more right-leaning than left-leaning voters.

Both dominate their core constituencies: Johnson takes 94% of the left and moderate left voters, while Blackburn takes 92% of the right and moderate right voters. Blackburn has a 12% lead among centrists. The overall lead for Blackburn is the result of the combination of her leads among centrists and the larger number of right leaning voters (52%) than left leaning voters (27%) in Tennessee.

Comparisons

Our previous poll of September 2, 2024 had Blackburn ahead by 19.6%. In November 2020, incumbent Republican Senator Bill Hagerty beat his Democratic challenger Marquita Bradshaw by 27.0%. In November 2018, Marscha Blackburn beat former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen to fill an open seat by 10.8%.

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