Blackburn Far Ahead in Tennessee

ActiVote’s September 2, 2024 Tennessee U.S. Senate poll shows that the Republican incumbent Senator Marsha Blackburn leads her Democratic challenger State Representative Gloria Johnson by 19.6%. 

The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between July 25, 2024 and September 2, 2024 with a median field date of August 13. 

Johnson leads among urban voters, voters under 50, Democrats and Black voters. Blackburn leads among all other groups. 

Political Spectrum

The following table and graph show the support for Blackburn and Johnson among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Tennessee there are significantly more right-leaning than left-leaning voters.

Both dominate their core constituencies: Johnson takes 96% of the left and moderate left voters, while Blackburn takes 96% of the right and moderate right voters. Blackburn has a 28% lead among centrists. The overall lead for Blackburn is the result of the combination of her lead among centrists and the larger number of right leaning voters (49%) than left leaning voters (33%) in Tennessee.

Comparisons

In November 2020, incumbent Republican Senator Bill Hagerty beat his Democratic challenger Marquita Bradshaw by 27.0%. In November 2018, Marscha Blackburn beat former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen by 10.8%, to fill the open seat previously occupied by Bob Corker.

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