Banks has double-digit lead in Indiana

ActiVote’s October 5, 2024 Indiana U.S. Senate poll shows that Republican U.S. Representative Jim Banks leads his Democratic opponent Valerie McCray by 12.2%. The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between September 3, 2024 and October 5, 2024 with a median field date of September 19. 

Please note that in this poll the threshold of 5% for inclusion in the crosstabs for the unweighted sample for Black and Latino voters was not met, so that they are not separately reported in the crosstabs. They are part of the weighted overall result. For details on reporting in our crosstabs see answer 4 of our polling disclosures.

McCray leads among suburban voters, women, Democrats and those with middle incomes. Banks leads or ties among all other groups.

Please note that Indiana does not register voters by party affiliation so that the inferred party affiliation from the voter file is much less accurate than in some other states, explaining why both candidates lose over 20% of those estimated to be affiliated with their party. These crosstab elements are therefore best ignored in this poll.

Political Spectrum

The following graph and table show the support for Banks and McCray among left, moderate left, center, moderate right, and right voters. These groups are defined by splitting the national electorate in 5 equal sized groups of 20% each. Please note that in the red state of Indiana, there are fewer left-leaning voters than the national average and more right-leaning voters.

McCray gets 98% of her core constituency (the left and moderate left), while Banks gets 93% of his core constituency (the right and moderate right). Banks has a large lead among the centrists. Bank’s lead is further amplified by having more right-leaning voters than left-leaning voters in red Indiana.

Comparisons

In 2020, incumbent U.S Senator Todd Young beat his Democratic opponent Thomas McDermott Jr. by 21.8%. In 2018, Republican Mike Braun beat the Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly by 5.9%.

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